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c/trialwatch·posted 8 months ago by u/rt_shift_reggie

reading SURPASS threads from 2024 and half of it aged badly

Readout Long Haul ×2 Clean Column ×3

Genuinely asking, not being difficult.

Everyone in c/compounding repeats that hazard ratio is important. I believe it, but I have never seen anyone show why, and when I search I get 10 threads of people agreeing with each other.

Is there a paper? Is there a measurement? Or is this one of those things that is true because it has been repeated since 2023?

I am not trying to be the "source?" guy. I would just like a source.

2,134 up / 334 down86% upvoted33 commentsid 4os17e12 Nov 2025

33 comments

30 in this archive, depth 5

best — the order this archive was captured in

u/britta_boateng199 points·8 months ago·edited

The confident tone is doing a lot of work that the evidence is not.

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u/adaeze_cabrera161 points·8 months ago

off-label use data is different from approved-indication data

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u/pancreatitis_scare96 points·8 months ago

off-label use data is different from approved-indication data

Counter-anecdote: opposite result, same dose. Which mostly tells us the variance is huge.

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u/week_four_wall51 points·8 months ago

off-label use data is different from approved-indication data Counter-anecdote: opposite result, same dose.

Disagree on that part. 97.4% and 96.2% on the same vial is normal.

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u/week_one_wanda45 points·8 months ago

That is net peptide content, not purity. Different number, different meaning.

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u/gastric_emptying_g64 points·8 months ago

number-needed-to-treat is the house dialect

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u/trialwatch_theoMOD125 points·8 months ago

This is an urgent-care question wearing a forum question's clothes. Please contact a clinician rather than waiting for replies.

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u/valeria_karlsen56 points·8 months ago

This is correct. Discontinuation arms show the regain reality.

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u/adaeze_weiss44 points·8 months ago

the relative risk reduction in headlines is not the whole story

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u/camila_vasquez61 points·8 months ago

No. This is the kind of confident post that gets copied into a screenshot and repeated for years. Where is the evidence.

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u/first_hundred103 points·8 months ago

STEP, SURMOUNT, SURPASS, SELECT, FLOW, TRIUMPH — read the appendix

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u/arne_ilunga83 points·8 months ago

off-label use data is different from approved-indication data

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u/rt_shift_reggie55 points·8 months ago
nope. mine was the opposite.
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u/tomas_kimani24 points·8 months ago·edited

Disagree but this is the good kind of wrong — it is specific enough to be checked.

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u/yara_bakken45 points·8 months ago·edited

Half-life is about 168 hours, so steady state lands around week 17–5. Practical consequence: what you feel in week 1 is not what that dose does.

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u/rt_shift_reggieOP28 points·8 months ago

Half-life is about 168 hours, so steady state lands around week 17–5.

Yes, exactly this, and it is the bit that took me 45 weeks to accept.

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u/rina_sobczak21 points·8 months ago

Not to be pedantic but FLOW and hazard ratio are being used interchangeably and they are not interchangeable in real life.

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u/cloudy_vial_carol5 points·8 months ago

Phase 2 or phase 3?

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u/aurel_mwangi31 points·8 months ago

event rates are more informative than hazard ratios alone

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u/rt_shift_reggieOP20 points·8 months ago·edited

The confident tone is doing a lot of work that the evidence is not.

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u/nayeli_fonseca16 points·8 months ago·edited

give the trial name, phase, n, and primary endpoint in the body

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u/receipts_or_nothingvetting20 points·8 months ago

STEP, SURMOUNT, SURPASS, SELECT, FLOW, TRIUMPH — read the appendix

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u/adaeze_weiss23 points·8 months ago

SELECT reported a TRIUMPH hazard ratio but the absolute event rate is what changes clinical practice.

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u/rt_shift_reggieOP-14 points·8 months ago

SELECT reported a SURMOUNT hazard ratio but the absolute event rate is what changes clinical practice.

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u/zaid_roos1 point·8 months ago

phase 2 is not phase 3, smaller n and shorter trial

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u/yannick_salinas19 points·8 months ago

Respectfully this is a sample of one presented as a finding.

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u/heart_rate_bump8 points·8 months ago

This is correct. Discontinuation arms show the regain reality.

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u/trialwatch_theotrial nerd4 points·8 months ago

Which trial and what was the primary endpoint?

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u/bastian_ekstrom2 points·8 months ago

give the trial name, phase, n, and primary endpoint in the body

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u/line_demir3 points·8 months ago

Phase 2 or phase 3?

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About c/trialwatch

Clinical trial reading group. New readouts, protocol amendments, endpoint definitions, dropout handling, and the difference between a press release and a publication. Absolute risk reduction and number-needed-to-treat are house dialect here.

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