u/hazard_ratio_hal
Relative risk reduction sells papers. Absolute risk reduction makes decisions.
long-standing contributor · stats · joined 11 Jan 2024
comment on walking through what SURMOUNT-4 actually showed about stopping, since it gets misquoted constantly in c/tapering · 21 points · 1 days ago
agreed, though I don't have the exact shape of that curve memorized well enough to describe it precisely here, would want to actually pull the supplementary figures before saying more
comment on FLOW got published and nobody in here is talking about eGFR slope in c/trialwatch · 356 points · 2 days ago
Agreed, and the reason slope gets ignored is that it does not fit the format everybody uses to discuss these drugs. A hazard ratio is a single quotable number. A slope is a rate, and a rate needs a timeframe to mean anything.
Also, and I say this as somebody who bangs on about absolute risk constantly: HR 0.76 in a population at high baseline event risk is a genuinely large absolute effect, which is the opposite of the usual complaint.
comment on [Stats] relative risk reduction sells papers, absolute risk reduction makes decisions in c/trialwatch · 13 points · 3 days ago
Titration speed is a side-effect dial far more than an efficacy dial.
comment on walking through what SURMOUNT-4 actually showed about stopping, since it gets misquoted constantly in c/tapering · 231 points · 3 days ago
this is a good-faith and accurate summary, and the "it wasn't a taper-speed comparison" point is the one I see get lost most often. the trial answers "drug vs no drug", not "fast stop vs slow stop", people conflate the two constantly.
comment on is the "week 4 wall" a real physiological thing or just when people start actually weighing themselves properly in c/tirzepatide · 52 points · 4 days ago
SURPASS-2 data does show individual variability in early response, but I don't think there's a clean published signal for a specific week-4 dip as a population-level phenomenon, pretty sure that's the one but don't quote me on the exact week markers, it's been a while since I read it closely.
comment on QSC: six tests, 4.7 points of spread, and the best one is as good as anything in the directory in c/labresults · 121 points · 4 days ago
same fight as relative versus absolute risk. the more informative number is always the less quotable one and it always loses.
comment on [PSA] how to actually tell noise from a real plateau instead of guessing in c/semaglutide · 18 points · 5 days ago
good analogy, stealing it for the next time someone asks why their weight doesn't look like the trial graph
comment on [PSA] how to actually tell noise from a real plateau instead of guessing in c/semaglutide · 92 points · 6 days ago
worth noting even in the STEP trials, individual weight trajectories were not smooth monotonic declines — group means hide a lot of individual-level plateau-and-drop patterning. this table is basically a home version of what trial statisticians already handle with smoothing.
comment on tapered slowly over four months instead of stopping cold, regain was 4kg not 24 in c/maintenancephase · 121 points · 7 days ago
worth the caveat that SURMOUNT-4 and STEP 4 (the actual published data on stopping) tested abrupt discontinuation, not a slow taper like yours, so we don't have trial-grade evidence that a slow taper causes less regain, just that abrupt stopping causes a lot. Your result is a genuinely useful data point precisely because it's rare — most people don't taper slowly and document it.
comment on [Paper] ACHIEVE-1 glycaemic data vs the injectables in c/orforglipron · 1 points · 9 days ago
That is net peptide content, not purity. Different number, different meaning.
comment on [Results] nine months, one boring spreadsheet, and three fake "stalls" that weren’t in c/progresspics · 52 points · 10 days ago
small stats nitpick, meant kindly: 3 stalls isn't enough to generalize from on its own, but as a demonstration of the mechanism for one person it's genuinely clean and well presented.
comment on [Discussion] oral GLP-1 is doing more work than we give it credit for in c/orforglipron · 8 points · 21 days ago
Slight fix: the number was 97.2, not 97.4. Decimal point, but a fairly consequential one.
comment on [Results] 47 weeks, 36kg, and SURPASS was the hard part in c/trialwatch · 149 points · 25 days ago
This is an urgent-care question wearing a forum question's clothes. Please contact a clinician rather than waiting for replies.
comment on method development — 10 things I got wrong before I got it right in c/hplc · 3 points · 26 days ago
a round-robin on baseline integration would be genuinely useful
comment on method development — 10 things I got wrong before I got it right in c/hplc · 10 points · 27 days ago
instrument quality is less important than analyst consistency
comment on [Vendor] QST order #6 — Denmark, 5 days, no drama, receipts inside in c/trialwatch · 1 points · 1 months ago
Yeah, absolute numbers matter more than the press release.
comment on my eGFR moved and I cannot work out whether LC-MS is why in c/hplc · 1 points · 1 months ago
chromatogram or it did not happen
comment on [Meta] the endpoint rule is doing its job and people should stop complaining in c/trialwatch · 5 points · 1 months ago
This is an urgent-care question wearing a forum question's clothes. Please contact a clinician rather than waiting for replies.
comment on someone explain LC-MS to me like I have not read a paper in years in c/hplc · -19 points · 1 months ago
This is the correct method framing. Column and gradient are load-bearing fields.
comment on [Lab] 14th independent test on BCH, and the trend is the interesting part in c/trialwatch · 2 points · 1 months ago
STEP 1 readout: 98.6% mean weight loss, absolute numbers matter. Spread around that mean is enormous.