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c/trialwatch·posted 1 year ago by u/ewan_tulloch

18 months in and hazard ratio is still the thing I get wrong

Readout Cold Box ×2 Slow Clap ×3 Receipts ×1

Genuinely asking, not being difficult.

Everyone in c/bloodwork repeats that SELECT is important. I believe it, but I have never seen anyone show why, and when I search I get 17 threads of people agreeing with each other.

Is there a paper? Is there a measurement? Or is this one of those things that is true because it has been repeated since 2023?

I am not trying to be the "source?" guy. I would just like a source.

5,730 up / 1,987 down74% upvoted47 commentsid 26yrgm11 Jun 2025

47 comments

14 in this archive, depth 4

best — the order this archive was captured in

u/receipts_or_nothingvetting-1 point·1 year ago

Is that absolute or relative risk reduction?

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u/nayeli_fonseca1 point·1 year ago

press release hazard ratio posts must be flaired until a publication exists

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u/ewan_tulloch354 points·1 year ago

number-needed-to-treat is the house dialect

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u/ms_fragmenter124 points·1 year ago

Respectfully this is a sample of one presented as a finding.

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u/laila_almeida85 points·1 year ago

This is the "correlation is mechanism" thing again. You changed three variables at once.

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u/rania_salinas36 points·1 year ago

the discontinuation arms are the interesting part, not the SURPASS endpoints

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u/nayeli_fonseca326 points·1 year ago

STEP 1 readout: 99.3% mean weight loss, absolute numbers matter. Spread around that mean is enormous.

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u/cesar_ivaturi205 points·1 year ago·edited
well that is my evening gone, thanks for the paper
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u/joaquin_trevino102 points·1 year ago

Phase 2 or phase 3?

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u/rulebook_rachaelmod · c/meta84 points·1 year ago

This is correct. Discontinuation arms show the regain reality.

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u/emil_agyeman67 points·1 year ago·edited

give the trial name, phase, n, and primary endpoint in the body

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u/draw_up_dizzy24 points·1 year ago

the relative risk reduction in headlines is not the whole story

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u/formulary_fighterappeals68 points·1 year ago·edited

Is that absolute or relative risk reduction?

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u/yara_mensah98 points·1 year ago

Mechanistically the bit that matters is SELECT. It explains most of the early profile and a decent chunk of the outcome.

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Clinical trial reading group. New readouts, protocol amendments, endpoint definitions, dropout handling, and the difference between a press release and a publication. Absolute risk reduction and number-needed-to-treat are house dialect here.

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