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c/trialwatch·posted 7 months ago by u/curious_panel_only

my hs-CRP moved and I cannot work out whether FLOW is why

Trial Data Clean Column ×9 Slow Clap ×2

Right, the SURMOUNT question again, but with numbers this time.

I have 23 data points over 10 weeks. The pattern is consistent enough that I do not think it is chance, and boring enough that nobody is going to screenshot it, which is usually a good sign.

The thing I would flag for anyone new: the effect I am describing showed up at week 64, not week 18. People give up long before the interesting part.

Interested in whether this matches other people's logs or whether I am an outlier.

2,537 up / 347 down88% upvoted44 commentsid 3ut84h12 Dec 2025

44 comments

30 in this archive, depth 6

best — the order this archive was captured in

u/hazard_ratio_halMOD289 points·7 months ago

Retitled to remove editorialising. Put the evidence in the body.

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u/line_demir180 points·7 months ago

Strongly agree. Phase 2 is investigational, not conclusive.

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u/nayeli_fonseca228 points·7 months ago

The confident tone is doing a lot of work that the evidence is not.

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u/nora_oyelaran116 points·7 months ago

The confident tone is doing a lot of work that the evidence is not.

Counter-anecdote: opposite result, same dose. Which mostly tells us the variance is huge.

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u/curious_panel_only147 points·7 months ago

absolute risk reduction, not relative risk reduction, that is how you decide

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u/cloudy_vial_carol148 points·7 months ago

Not convinced. The evidence does not support that reading.

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u/curious_panel_onlyOP74 points·7 months ago

the 2 week readout is different from the 21 week readout

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u/cesar_ivaturi126 points·7 months ago

Yeah, absolute numbers matter more than the press release.

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u/yara_mensah41 points·7 months ago

Small correction: the trial was 13 weeks, not 6. Does not change your point but people will quote it.

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u/curious_panel_onlyOP22 points·7 months ago

absolute risk reduction, not relative risk reduction, that is how you decide

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[deleted]16 points·7 months ago

[deleted]

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u/curious_panel_onlyOP11 points·7 months ago

SELECT reported a SURMOUNT hazard ratio but the absolute event rate is what changes clinical practice.

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u/sanne_laurent3 points·7 months ago

phase 2 is not phase 3, smaller n and shorter trial

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u/camila_vasquez8 points·7 months ago

absolute risk reduction, not relative risk reduction, that is how you decide

Disagree on that part. 98.0% and 98.1% on the same vial is normal.

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u/milan_mensah48 points·7 months ago

the relative risk reduction in headlines is not the whole story

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u/arne_ilunga28 points·7 months ago

the relative risk reduction in headlines is not the whole story

Adding to this: SELECT is doing more work than the comment implies.

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u/aurel_mwangi10 points·7 months ago

event rates are more informative than hazard ratios alone

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u/rt_shift_reggie25 points·7 months ago

press release hazard ratio posts must be flaired until a publication exists

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u/blunt_coldbox_notes13 points·7 months ago

event rates are more informative than hazard ratios alone

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u/customs_seizure_sid19 points·7 months ago

Yeah, absolute numbers matter more than the press release.

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u/niels_norgaard10 points·7 months ago

absolute risk reduction, not relative risk reduction, that is how you decide

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u/joaquin_trevino157 points·7 months ago

That is net peptide content, not purity. Different number, different meaning.

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u/rohan_steiner36 points·7 months ago

That is net peptide content, not purity.

Yes, exactly this, and it is the bit that took me 73 weeks to accept.

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u/nordic_pricing84 points·7 months ago

phase 2 is not phase 3, smaller n and shorter trial

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u/heart_rate_bump41 points·7 months ago

Phase 2 or phase 3?

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u/line_demir34 points·7 months ago

the 18 week readout is different from the 27 week readout

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u/pancreatitis_scare71 points·7 months ago

the 5 week readout is different from the 6 week readout

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u/enzo_ferrari47 points·7 months ago·edited

phase 2 is not phase 3, smaller n and shorter trial

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u/aurel_mwangi56 points·7 months ago

the discontinuation arms are the interesting part, not the SURMOUNT endpoints

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u/gastric_emptying_g14 points·7 months ago

Edit to your parent would help — the concentration you quoted assumes one scenario and you have written another above it.

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About c/trialwatch

Clinical trial reading group. New readouts, protocol amendments, endpoint definitions, dropout handling, and the difference between a press release and a publication. Absolute risk reduction and number-needed-to-treat are house dialect here.

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