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c/trialwatch·posted 2 months ago by u/whois_wanda

[Discussion] we are measuring SURPASS at the wrong time and calling it noise

Discussion Clean Column ×5

Genuinely asking, not being difficult.

Everyone in c/compounding repeats that hazard ratio is important. I believe it, but I have never seen anyone show why, and when I search I get 11 threads of people agreeing with each other.

Is there a paper? Is there a measurement? Or is this one of those things that is true because it has been repeated since 2023?

I am not trying to be the "source?" guy. I would just like a source.

4,714 up / 4,141 down53% upvoted11 commentsid 14rvad13 May 2026

11 comments

11 in this archive, depth 3

best — the order this archive was captured in

u/cold_chromatogram3154 points·2 months ago

absolute risk reduction, not relative risk reduction, that is how you decide

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u/ferran_dahlberg41 points·2 months ago

The confident tone is doing a lot of work that the evidence is not.

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u/milan_mensah14 points·2 months ago

Disagree but this is the good kind of wrong — it is specific enough to be checked.

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u/nightowl_injector41 points·2 months ago

The evidence standard in c/vendorvetting gets called too strict about once a month, and every time, the thread ends with the complainant agreeing.

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u/whois_wandaOP18 points·2 months ago

SURMOUNT-4 discontinuation arm showed regain. That is the reality of a chronic disease treatment, not a failure.

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u/whois_wandaOP31 points·2 months ago

Phase 2 TRIUMPH looked amazing. Phase 3 trials are harder. Do not anchor on phase 2 readouts.

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u/kaia_cabrera40 points·2 months ago

Phase 2 TRIUMPH looked amazing.

Disagree on that part. 99.2% and 98.9% on the same vial is normal.

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u/milan_villalobos0 points·2 months ago

dropout handling matters, especially on GI-heavy populations

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u/iman_castellanos-4 points·2 months ago

dropout handling matters, especially on GI-heavy populations

Yes, exactly this, and it is the bit that took me 58 weeks to accept.

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u/ahmed_iyer14 points·2 months ago

This is correct. Discontinuation arms show the regain reality.

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u/whois_wandaOP5 points·2 months ago

Which trial and what was the primary endpoint?

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About c/trialwatch

Clinical trial reading group. New readouts, protocol amendments, endpoint definitions, dropout handling, and the difference between a press release and a publication. Absolute risk reduction and number-needed-to-treat are house dialect here.

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