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c/trialwatch·posted 4 days ago by u/britta_boateng

[Stats] relative risk reduction sells papers, absolute risk reduction makes decisions

Stats Clean Column ×1

Genuinely asking, not being difficult.

Everyone in c/compounding repeats that hazard ratio is important. I believe it, but I have never seen anyone show why, and when I search I get 6 threads of people agreeing with each other.

Is there a paper? Is there a measurement? Or is this one of those things that is true because it has been repeated since 2023?

I am not trying to be the "source?" guy. I would just like a source.

803 up / 72 down92% upvoted58 commentsid poxn9625 Jul 2026

58 comments

25 in this archive, depth 4

best — the order this archive was captured in

u/oskar_ibarra71 points·2 days ago
fair enough
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u/week_one_wanda56 points·2 days ago

Strongly agree. Phase 2 is investigational, not conclusive.

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u/plateau_patrol27 points·2 days ago

the relative risk reduction in headlines is not the whole story

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u/ines_castellanos43 points·2 days ago

Edit to your parent would help — the concentration you quoted assumes one scenario and you have written another above it.

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u/pancreatitis_scare20 points·2 days ago

Yeah, absolute numbers matter more than the press release.

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u/joaquin_trevino14 points·2 days ago

Yeah, absolute numbers matter more than the press release.

Adding to this: SURMOUNT is doing more work than the comment implies.

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u/injection_site_iris9 points·2 days ago

What was the dropout rate?

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u/tb500_tangent39 points·4 days ago

The practical rule people converge on is 28 days at fridge temperature after first puncture, and that comes from the preservative, not the peptide.

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u/britta_boatengOP26 points·4 days ago

STEP 1 readout: 98.6% mean weight loss, absolute numbers matter. Spread around that mean is enormous.

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u/emil_agyeman32 points·3 days ago

Respectfully this is a sample of one presented as a finding.

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u/line_demir33 points·2 days ago

absolute risk reduction, not relative risk reduction, that is how you decide

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u/forest_plot_fionaMOD20 points·4 days ago

This is an urgent-care question wearing a forum question's clothes. Please contact a clinician rather than waiting for replies.

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u/ferran_dahlberg8 points·4 days ago

event rates are more informative than hazard ratios alone

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u/hazard_ratio_halstats13 points·3 days ago·edited

Titration speed is a side-effect dial far more than an efficacy dial.

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u/milos_trevino9 points·3 days ago·edited

Strongly agree. Phase 2 is investigational, not conclusive.

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u/milan_villalobos-25 points·3 days ago

Which trial and what was the primary endpoint?

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u/rania_salinas7 points·3 days ago

Phase 2 TRIUMPH looked amazing. Phase 3 trials are harder. Do not anchor on phase 2 readouts.

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u/laila_almeida6 points·3 days ago·edited

the discontinuation arms are the interesting part, not the endpoint endpoints

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u/cloudy_vial_carol5 points·3 days ago

phase 2 is not phase 3, smaller n and shorter trial

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u/britta_boatengOP3 points·3 days ago

phase 2 is not phase 3, smaller n and shorter trial

Yes, exactly this, and it is the bit that took me 5 weeks to accept.

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u/cesar_ivaturi2 points·3 days ago

SURMOUNT-4 discontinuation arm showed regain. That is the reality of a chronic disease treatment, not a failure.

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u/forest_plot_fionastats4 points·3 days ago

number-needed-to-treat is the house dialect

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u/ferran_dahlberg2 points·2 days ago

absolute risk reduction, not relative risk reduction, that is how you decide

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u/milan_villalobos1 point·2 days ago

absolute risk reduction, not relative risk reduction, that is how you decide

Counter-anecdote: opposite result, same dose. Which mostly tells us the variance is huge.

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u/hsa_math3 points·2 days ago

No. This is the kind of confident post that gets copied into a screenshot and repeated for years. Where is the evidence.

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Clinical trial reading group. New readouts, protocol amendments, endpoint definitions, dropout handling, and the difference between a press release and a publication. Absolute risk reduction and number-needed-to-treat are house dialect here.

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