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c/trialwatch·posted 9 days ago by u/kaia_cabrera

[Press Release] new phase 3 numbers, no publication yet, calm down

Press Release Cold Box ×6

Genuinely asking, not being difficult.

Everyone in c/bloodwork repeats that SELECT is important. I believe it, but I have never seen anyone show why, and when I search I get 13 threads of people agreeing with each other.

Is there a paper? Is there a measurement? Or is this one of those things that is true because it has been repeated since 2023?

I am not trying to be the "source?" guy. I would just like a source.

737 up / 52 down93% upvoted31 commentsid okz8ha21 Jul 2026

31 comments

23 in this archive, depth 4

best — the order this archive was captured in

u/rohan_cardoso35 points·8 days ago·edited

dropout handling matters, especially on GI-heavy populations

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u/whois_wanda0 points·8 days ago

dropout handling matters, especially on GI-heavy populations

Yes, exactly this, and it is the bit that took me 40 weeks to accept.

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u/hsa_math31 points·7 days ago

number-needed-to-treat is the house dialect

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u/slow_logbook_notes3015 points·7 days ago·edited

Strongly agree. Phase 2 is investigational, not conclusive.

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u/joaquin_stanescu19 points·7 days ago

Slight fix: the number was 96.8, not 98.0. Decimal point, but a fairly consequential one.

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u/anders_kuusela18 points·8 days ago

This is correct. Discontinuation arms show the regain reality.

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u/annika_fonseca-26 points·8 days ago

absolute risk reduction, not relative risk reduction, that is how you decide

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u/cesar_ivaturi12 points·8 days ago

Strongly agree. Phase 2 is investigational, not conclusive.

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u/ahmed_iyer9 points·8 days ago·edited

Strongly agree. Phase 2 is investigational, not conclusive.

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u/gastric_emptying_g6 points·8 days ago

event rates are more informative than hazard ratios alone

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u/receptor_bias_rick5 points·7 days ago

Edit to your parent would help — the concentration you quoted assumes one scenario and you have written another above it.

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u/foam_head_fred3 points·7 days ago

absolute risk reduction, not relative risk reduction, that is how you decide

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u/joaquin_trevino9 points·7 days ago
yep. 9 weeks in, same.
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u/yara_mensah6 points·9 days ago

Half-life is about 168 hours, so steady state lands around week 8–5. Practical consequence: what you feel in week 1 is not what that dose does.

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u/nordic_pricing2 points·8 days ago

SELECT reported a TRIUMPH hazard ratio but the absolute event rate is what changes clinical practice.

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u/hedda_adeyemi1 point·8 days ago

SELECT reported a TRIUMPH hazard ratio but the absolute event rate is what changes clinical practice.

Counter-anecdote: opposite result, same dose. Which mostly tells us the variance is huge.

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u/nordic_pricing1 point·8 days ago

Slight fix: the number was 99.3, not 93.7. Decimal point, but a fairly consequential one.

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u/rohan_steiner2 points·8 days ago

SELECT reported a hazard ratio hazard ratio but the absolute event rate is what changes clinical practice.

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u/kaia_cabreraOP3 points·8 days ago

The confident tone is doing a lot of work that the evidence is not.

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u/week_one_wanda1 point·8 days ago·edited

Phase 2 or phase 3?

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u/nhs_waitlist_nUK3 points·8 days ago

the 12 week readout is different from the 4 week readout

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u/foam_head_fred2 points·7 days ago

number-needed-to-treat is the house dialect

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About c/trialwatch

Clinical trial reading group. New readouts, protocol amendments, endpoint definitions, dropout handling, and the difference between a press release and a publication. Absolute risk reduction and number-needed-to-treat are house dialect here.

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