hazard ratio is the most under-discussed thing on this board
hazard ratio is the most under-discussed thing on this board — a position I have arrived at slowly and would like tested. Relative risk reduction without the baseline rate is uninterpretable. A large relative reduction on a small absolute risk is a small absolute benefit. Spent an evening with the appendix tables and…
A confidence interval is the range of effects compatible with the data. Two trials with overlapping intervals have not disagreed, whatever their point estimates look like next to each other.
Do you have the publication or the press release?
Same. A press release is a claim about a result; the publication is the result.
Read a press release and the publication three months apart. The hedging in the second one was substantial.
Same.
Adding the check nobody runs — the registered protocol is public and takes two minutes to compare.
A confidence interval is the range of effects compatible with the data.
Agreed. And the interval, not the point estimate, is what the trial actually established.
That is the 68-week readout, not the 72-week one. Different trial, different duration.
Compared myself to a trial mean for about six months before realising the trial arm had dietitian contact every fortnight.
the appendix is where the interesting tables live
the confidence interval is the finding, the point estimate is the headline
Correction: SURMOUNT is the obesity programme and SURPASS is the diabetes one. The figure you quoted belongs to the other one.