[Results] nine months, one boring spreadsheet, and three fake "stalls" that weren’t
61 tabs in this spreadsheet at this point and the single most useful column isn't weight, it's the 7-day rolling average next to it. Nine months in, raw numbers "stalled" (flat for 10+ days) three separate times. The rolling average never actually went flat for more than about 4 days any of those times.
| "Stall" # | Raw-number flat days | Rolling avg flat days | Was it real |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (week 4) | 11 | 3 | no |
| 2 (week 9) | 13 | 4 | no |
| 3 (week 22) | 16 | 2 | no |
Zero of my three "stalls" were real by the rolling-average standard. Posting the boring numbers because I think a lot of quitting happens at exactly this kind of fake stall.
best — the order this archive was captured in
this table is basically the empirical proof of the thing I keep saying in every one of these threads. thank you for actually doing it with real numbers instead of me just asserting it.
honestly did it partly to prove it to myself, I was fully convinced stall #2 was real while it was happening
this is the whole trap, it always feels real in the moment, the data is the only thing that argues back
would genuinely read a full writeup of your spreadsheet methodology, this table alone answered a question I've had for months
Flairing Results and pinning alongside the noise-vs-plateau explainer post, they pair well together — one's the theory, this is the data backing it.
small stats nitpick, meant kindly: 3 stalls isn't enough to generalize from on its own, but as a demonstration of the mechanism for one person it's genuinely clean and well presented.
completely fair, n=1 person with 3 events, not claiming more than that, just wanted the receipts to exist somewhere
convenient that all three "weren't real" by your own chosen threshold, feels a little like the method is built to always say noise
the threshold (rolling avg flat 3+ weeks) isn't arbitrary though, it's roughly matched to how long it takes water/sodium noise to average out. it's not built to always say noise, it's just that most short stalls genuinely are noise, which is the actual point being made across all these threads.
ok, that's a fair defense of the threshold, walking back the "built to always say noise" framing
tl;dr — 3 for 3 fake stalls in nine months once you look at the right number instead of the raw one
this table talked me into finally building my own spreadsheet instead of just eyeballing the app graph
fwiw stall #3 at week 22 having the shortest rolling-average blip is a nice detail, later on the noise seems to settle out faster for you